At last week’s TIACA Air Cargo Forum in Miami, industry leaders gathered to assess the state of global air freight and peek into 2025’s crystal ball. One of the featured keynotes during the conference was delivered by Rotate CEO Ryan Keyrouse’s data-driven market analysis that holds important implications for Chicago’s air cargo community.

The headline number is impressive: 13% growth in 2024, with particular strength in Asia-Pacific routes. For Chicago-area companies, this translates into continued robust trans-Pacific volume, though Keyrouse emphasized that the nature of this cargo is evolving. Over half of China’s air exports now comprise e-commerce shipments – a dramatic shift that impacts everything from warehouse operations to customs processing.

A critical insight was that while capacity grew 8% in 2024, it still lags behind demand growth. This constraint isn’t going away soon, with Keyrouse projecting only 4.4% capacity growth in 2025. For local operators, this signals continued pressure on space and rates, particularly during peak seasons.

Perhaps most telling for us here in the US is the significant shift in aircraft deployment. Carriers are actively pulling freighter capacity from traditional routes – including Latin America and Africa – to serve the lucrative Asia-US trade lanes. This reallocation of aircraft has profound implications for Chicago’s role as a major cargo hub, potentially bringing additional challenges and opportunities.

The equipment situation adds another layer of complexity. With both Boeing and Airbus experiencing delays in their new freighter programs, airlines are keeping older aircraft in service longer. Keyrouse noted that within four years, a significant portion of the global freighter fleet will be over 30 years old. This aging fleet presents both challenges and opportunities for ground handlers and maintenance providers in the Chicago area.

Looking ahead to 2025, four key trends demand our attention:

  1. E-commerce Evolution: While U.S. markets mature, emerging markets present new opportunities. However, potential regulatory changes – particularly around de minimis thresholds – could reshape traffic patterns.
  2. Trade Policy Impact: Possible new tariffs could drive front-loading of shipments, similar to 2018-19 patterns. Chicago forwarders should watch inventory levels as a leading indicator.
  3. Capacity Constraints: Aircraft are operating at near-maximum utilization, with load factors on Asia-North America routes reaching 88%. With production delays affecting new freighters, older aircraft will need to remain in service longer.
  4. Ongoing Disruptions: From Red Sea routing changes to potential port strikes, supply chain flexibility remains crucial.

These trends suggest a 2025 marked by both opportunity and challenge. Our strategic position as a major inland port becomes even more valuable in this capacity-constrained environment, but success will require agility in responding to both regulatory changes driven by the political climate and election outcome which could directly impact e-commerce patterns.